Accelerating Outcomes: How Decision Intelligence Supports Force Design 2028
- James 'Jim' Eselgroth
- Aug 13
- 4 min read
BLUF | Force Design 2028’s vision is most likely to succeed when decisions are consistently linked to measurable improvements in speed, cost, and quality — Decision Intelligence (DI) provides the framework to make that happen.
This article builds directly on our discussion last week about the US Coast Guard’s Force Design 2028 and the dialogues and observations that followed — highlighting institutional pride, the “silence of success,” and the push to modernize not just tools but mindsets.
Over the past week, those conversations have sparked deeper reflections on how to ensure modernization delivers tangible results. For those seeking a practical, design-focused way to translate decisions into measurable outcomes, it’s worth looking at frameworks similar to those described in a thought-provoking Decision Intelligence blog post by Mark Zangari and Lorien Pratt. While we won’t dive into the specifics here, the essence is simple: connect choices to results through a clear, visual logic that guides action.
Why This Matters Now
The Coast Guard has a long tradition of achieving mission success with limited resources. As one senior leader observed, “The silence of success is deafening — you hear a lot of noise when things don’t work, but not much when they do.” This quiet professionalism has built pride in the service.
Yet, modernization funding creates a new challenge: shifting from a mindset of “fixing the old engine” to “building a new car.” Without a disciplined approach, old processes and unsustainable efforts could carry forward — slowing transformation and diluting impact.
Force Design 2028 is the opportunity to do both the right things and things right — and DI is the engine to make it happen.
The Core Idea
DI is a structured, repeatable approach to connect actions to outcomes. It ensures that leaders can see:
What decisions matter most to mission success.
How each choice affects results across speed, cost, and quality.
Where to adapt as conditions change.
Its power lies in creating a living model of cause and effect — a map showing how levers you control, external factors you monitor, and the outcomes you care about are linked.
How DI Supports Force Design 2028
Start with the Mission Outcomes | Force Design 2028 outlines where the Coast Guard must be in capability, readiness, and resilience. DI begins by translating those broad goals into measurable outcomes. For example:
Speed: Reduce incident response times by 20%.
Cost: Increase fuel efficiency by 10% without reducing patrol coverage.
Quality: Improve asset availability rates to above 95%.
Identify the Decisions That Matter Most | Not all decisions have equal impact. DI helps pinpoint where choices — such as asset deployment models, maintenance scheduling, or crew training priorities — will most influence these outcomes.
Map Actions to Outcomes | A DI map shows the “how” and “why” chains that link an action (e.g., adopting predictive maintenance) to intermediate effects (reduced unscheduled downtime) and final results (more patrol hours at lower cost).
Integrate External Factors | Weather patterns, geopolitical shifts, or emerging maritime threats are outside the Coast Guard’s control, but they influence outcomes. DI incorporates these variables so leaders can test scenarios and prepare for different futures.
Measure, Learn, and Adapt | By making each outcome measurable, DI enables continuous assessment. If a change doesn’t improve speed, cost, or quality as expected, leaders can adjust before small issues become systemic problems.
Why This Works for the Coast Guard
The same senior leader provided additional observation points to an enduring truth: success is often invisible, and the danger lies in assuming current methods will work in tomorrow’s environment. DI addresses this by:
Making success visible through metrics tied to mission outcomes.
Challenging outdated assumptions with data-driven analysis.
Replacing ad-hoc fixes with scalable, repeatable practices.
In plain terms: it’s about moving from reactive fixes to proactive, evidence-based decisions.
Applying the Speed–Cost–Quality Lens
DI doesn’t just track actions — it measures value in terms every leader understands:
Speed: Can we execute missions faster without sacrificing quality (e.g., reducing a manual process from 16 hours to 5 minutes with automation)?
Cost: Can we deliver the same or better outcomes with fewer resources (e.g., increasing output from 1× to 10× per dollar spent)?
Quality: Can we improve mission success rates and cut defects, failures, or rework (e.g., reducing manual errors from 1 in 100 to 1 in 1,000)?
This lens ensures that Force Design 2028 delivers not just modern assets and processes, but measurable improvements in operational effectiveness.
Practical Example
Consider a decision on upgrading small boat engines:
Without DI: The decision might rely on budget availability and historical replacement cycles.
With DI: Leaders model how newer engines affect patrol speed (speed), maintenance costs (cost), and reliability in harsh conditions (quality). They see the trade-offs, forecast long-term benefits, and track actual performance against projections after implementation.
The Cultural Shift
Implementing DI is as much about mindset as it is about method. It asks leaders and teams to:
Define success before taking action.
Make decisions in the open, with shared logic and evidence.
Modernization includes updating decision-making and delivery methods.
For a service proud of its traditions, this is not a replacement of core values — it’s an amplification of them, using modern tools to preserve and extend mission excellence.
Bottom Line
Force Design 2028 gives the Coast Guard a clear strategic direction. DI ensures that direction translates into faster, more cost-effective, higher-quality outcomes.
By mapping the path from action to result, measuring impact through speed, cost, and quality, and adapting in real time, DI turns modernization from a plan into a sustained advantage.
In short: The right decisions, made the right way, at the right time — that’s how strategy becomes reality.
Reference: