Turning Coast Guard Strategy into Smart Action

From support to intelligence, leveraging DI for strategic advantage and decision-making success. Image by AI

BLUF: FD2028 is a bold, one-time transformation for the Coast Guard, but its long-term success depends on embedding continuous Decision Intelligence—powered by frameworks like OXYGEN—turning vision into sustained action and measurable advantage.

In times of institutional crisis, bold transformation is essential, but transformation alone is not enough. The U.S. Coast Guard’s Force Design 2028 (FD2028) lays out an ambitious vision to restore readiness and regain operational advantage. What is often overlooked is this: FD2028’s success hinges on more than new structures and technologies. It requires a new way of thinking, one that is continuous, intelligence-led, and rooted in decision-making.

That approach is known as Decision Intelligence (DI), and it is how transformation becomes sustainable, adaptive, and real.

"The Service is in a downward readiness spiral that is unsustainable. Without change, the Coast Guard will fail." (FD2028, p. 1)

The report is a call to arms, not just for the Coast Guard but for any organization seeking to build resilience, speed, and foresight into its operations. At the center of this transformation is a critical distinction: the difference between decision support and DI.

Decision Support + Decision Intelligence = Decision Advantage

Decision Support Systems (DSS) have long been foundational. They analyze and visualize historical data to help humans make better-informed judgments. However, they are ultimately reactive, descriptive, and reliant on human interpretation. They tell you what happened.

DI, is a structured, scalable approach to optimize and automate decisions using data, context, and human expertise. DI platforms simulate scenarios, generate alternatives, offer prescriptive recommendations, and often learn from outcomes to improve over time.

FD2028 calls for this type of intelligence-led transformation. The creation of a Futures Development and Integration function is not just about forecasting. It is about building decision advantage: the institutional ability to consistently out-decide adversaries through foresight, agility, and alignment.

"Design the future Coast Guard force to win… improve decision-making through the stand-up of a Futures Development and Integration function." (FD2028, p. 4)

DI is proactive. It moves beyond dashboards to the domain of action, simulation, and feedback loops. It shifts decision-making from being a bottleneck to being a strategic asset.

The 5Ps: A Holistic Framework for Decision Intelligence

Strategic Framework: Focusing on 5Ps—People, Policy, Partners, Process, and Platforms—to Enhance Readiness and Agility in Homeland Security Efforts. Image by AI

At Red Cedar, we often frame digital and operational transformation through the 5Ps: People, Policy, Process, Platforms, and Partners. FD2028 addresses all five:

• People:

  • "The Service will grow its military workforce by at least 15,000 members." (FD2028, p. 6)

  • The Coast Guard is redesigning its workforce architecture, moving away from outdated pyramid structures and aligning with merit- and readiness-based leadership models. DI thrives when people are empowered, trained, and mission-aligned.

• Policy:

  • "The Coast Guard will restructure and transform… to ensure the Coast Guard’s ability to address current and future threats in the cyber and space domains." (FD2028, p. 5)

  • Revamping doctrine, policies, and regulatory frameworks is not just a governance exercise. It is essential to enabling clarity, speed, and scale in decision-making. This type of policy modernization supports the structured and dynamic environments in which DI thrives.

• Process:

  • "The Coast Guard will end its practice of peer governance… establish a Director of Staff… pushing decisions down and information up." (FD2028, p. 5)

  • DI requires structured decision processes with clear ownership, real-time data feedback, and action triggers.

• Platforms:

  • "Develop… a robust and integrated sensor network… leveraging artificial intelligence." (FD2028, p. 8) "Implement… conditions-based maintenance of assets." (FD2028, p. 9)

  • Sensors, AI, and logistics data form the raw material for intelligent decisions. Platforms must also support simulation, learning, and transparency to fulfill their potential.

• Partners:

  • "Outsourcing surge work… improve interoperability with joint and interagency forces…" (FD2028, p. 11)

  • DI is not just an internal function. It is an ecosystem. Interoperability with external actors ensures decisions are informed by the full landscape.

DI starts with the decision itself. The most powerful analytics platforms or AI models are wasted if we haven’t clearly defined the decision we’re trying to improve. The process begins by engaging with the people who make the decision—understanding their context, constraints, and goals—before we think about technology, data pipelines, or algorithms. Only then can we align the right tools and data to deliver real impact.

OXYGEN: Red Cedar’s Approach to Decision Intelligence

Diagram illustrating the Red Cedar OXYGEN Process with directional arrows indicating flow dynamics. Image by Red Cedar

To translate data into action, Red Cedar uses a structured DI process called OXYGEN. It begins by Organizing and clearly defining the decision, then moves to X-ray (Analyze) with deep analysis to uncover insights, Yield tangible outputs such as forecasts and KPIs, Generate dashboards, models, or tools, Explain results to stakeholders in clear narratives, and Network solutions across the organization for scaling and continuous monitoring. This feedback-driven cycle keeps decision-makers engaged and ensures analytics remain a living capability, not a one-time deliverable. FD2028 mirrors this methodology:

"The Coast Guard must be able to quickly and effectively identify, adopt, and deliver... advanced technology capabilities." (FD2028, p. 9) "Operators provide immediate feedback on emerging technology and processes..." (FD2028, p. 9)

FD2028 represents a generational shift, but the path to lasting transformation is not a one-time push. It requires a repeatable, adaptive process that supports evolving decisions long after the initial blueprint is signed. This is where DI, and frameworks like OXYGEN, provide enduring value. They do not just help organizations transform; they help them stay transformed.

These are the feedback loops that power DI. Human-machine teaming. Learning from frontline feedback. Closing the loop between decision and outcome. This is OXYGEN in practice.

Lead Like the Coast Guard Wants To

FD2028 is more than a plan. It is a generational commitment to change and an urgent response to crisis. Even the best strategy needs the right decision infrastructure to survive continuous contact with complexity.

That is why leaders across sectors should look beyond dashboards and KPIs. Decision Intelligence offers a living framework that turns insight into action, and action into advantage. It is not just how FD2028 succeeds, it is how any transformation endures.

Because without DI, dashboards are where insight goes to die. With DI, we do not just nod. We decide, and we learn.

Reference:

USCG Force Design 2028